The real question is not who knows or understands the economy. The question is who understands the fall, and who understands the way through the trough, and then who knows the way up again. Any given economic or market genius may only know one part of the cycle. For example, check this out if you want to see someone who understands what brought us down, but has lately shown little comprehension of the trough or the way through it.
Or, think of Krugman railing against tax breaks. Please tell me, Mr. Nobel, how does a stimulus alone make up for the coming wage deflation? It doesn't. The only way to get people to simultaneously delever and consume is to put more money in their pockets.
I just got around to reading The World Is Curved. I am curious to see what Smick sees about the next phase.
Friday, January 16, 2009
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