Thursday, February 26, 2009

10 year plan?

I have been puzzled all day on the timing of Obama's 10 year spending plan. Is Obama being moralistic in telling us up front about the higher taxes and reduced defense spending that is due to follow? Or did Jindal's failure to offer a significant rejoinder the other night give Obama the clout to dump all the softballs out onto the green, knowing full well that the GOP lacks a slugger?

Or maybe it's politics of another variety. This morning I was pondering what would trigger ratings agencies to downgrade the US. I still don't know the answer to that particular question, but maybe Obama's plan hints at it. There's really no other reason to lay down the reality of fiscal responsibility in this time. Yes, we're that close to the brink. The president is telling the bond analysts and CDS spread geeks not to worry about the country's future ability to pay its obligations. I wonder if the dollar will rally or sink in light of this?

Monday, February 23, 2009

The anti-globalism rhetoric is heating up, as I predicted it would. The next fallout will be as governments fail to make a difference, populist anti-government anger will increase. Any and every country will have to watch out for its very own Timothy McVeigh.

In Europe, labor markets will become less fluid as foreigners are blamed for stealing the remaining jobs. That will not end well.

Here in the U.S., the housing bubble is still not deflated all the way. Obama will put America's real estate market on life support, much to the annoyance of those of us who acted responsibly by NOT buying a house during the bubble. Quite frankly, unless Obama can take the bull by the horns and rework the system itself, the country is sunk (as in the 70s, rather than Bolshevism). I hate to sound so dire, but that is where we are at here.

The anti-government crowd is going to get bigger and louder unless Obama can do most of the following:

  • Quickly and aggressively place all zombie banks into receivership.
  • Allow Detroit to fail.
  • Provide an unemployment benefits backstop for the workers who lose their jobs.
  • Maintain a tax structure that creates incentives for innovation and hiring; and
  • Catch Osama bin Laden.

The current path, which coddles obstructionist Republicans and gives Pelosicrats too much power, will only lead to failure. Obama's desire to create unity is the right approach for another era. Right now, the country needs leadership and vision, which is what we thought when we went to the polls in November.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Nadir or Abyss?

I thought we were entering into the nadir of the financial crisis, but reading Geithner's proposal makes me think we're still on the edge of an abyss. Great.