Schwab's Sonders has a great article/analysis available.
I think if it weren't for the economic chaos, she'd be calling a market bottom based on some of the facts: hedge funds deleveraged, hedge funds' and mutual funds' redemptions having peaked, etc. No one in their right minds (yeah, I'm calling you out, Professor Siegel!) would think that there is a quick V-shaped turnaround coming, though.
Maybe we're at the bottom, I don't know. I suspect we're bottom-ish, but there's just too much uncertainty remaining. Obama's stimulus, the effect of four more years of mortgage resets coming, inflation/deflation, corporate solvency in the coming two quarters, etc. Oh, and did I mention that at some point the War Bubble in the DC metro area is bound to pop? That's a good thing on balance, of course. Peace is always preferable to war. But, economically, it's one more detriment looming.
I've got a prediction: We've already begun a Depression. We won't know it for another year, though. In thinking of the business cycle, it is impossible to compare Bush's America to Hoover's America. It's like comparing a Hummer to a Model T. If you take a step downward from a Hummer, you're still driving a Jeep or a Nissan Xterra. Retreat from a Model T and you're hoofing it. So, if you're looking for GD2, you have to think in today's terms.
I think if it weren't for the economic chaos, she'd be calling a market bottom based on some of the facts: hedge funds deleveraged, hedge funds' and mutual funds' redemptions having peaked, etc. No one in their right minds (yeah, I'm calling you out, Professor Siegel!) would think that there is a quick V-shaped turnaround coming, though.
Maybe we're at the bottom, I don't know. I suspect we're bottom-ish, but there's just too much uncertainty remaining. Obama's stimulus, the effect of four more years of mortgage resets coming, inflation/deflation, corporate solvency in the coming two quarters, etc. Oh, and did I mention that at some point the War Bubble in the DC metro area is bound to pop? That's a good thing on balance, of course. Peace is always preferable to war. But, economically, it's one more detriment looming.
I've got a prediction: We've already begun a Depression. We won't know it for another year, though. In thinking of the business cycle, it is impossible to compare Bush's America to Hoover's America. It's like comparing a Hummer to a Model T. If you take a step downward from a Hummer, you're still driving a Jeep or a Nissan Xterra. Retreat from a Model T and you're hoofing it. So, if you're looking for GD2, you have to think in today's terms.
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