tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9870342370136186602024-03-12T21:21:26.898-04:00Breakthrough DayA blog about awesome.
"I'm having a breakthrough day."The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.comBlogger111125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-90253998250736253052012-05-04T07:42:00.001-04:002012-05-04T07:42:37.932-04:0040 Years of Pent Up DemandI argued with the smartest person I know that the student loan crisis is a boon to the extent that it represents pent up demand. In eight to fourteen years, as the existing student debt burden becomes manageable, edumacated peeples will start to ping the bling, buying up timeshares, Mercs (as in Benzos, not camo-faced ex-Marines), Tag Heuer watches, commercial real estate, and fancyfancy The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-41043095183518676322011-09-21T08:34:00.003-04:002011-09-21T08:39:53.324-04:00Euro StuffJust a quick note, mostly to self. You can't separate the fiscal from the financial. Given the differences, it's easy to see how the Europeans permitted the creation of a sovereign monetary union, without sovereign fiscal unity. Financial decisions are strategic, amoral, and are generally a lot of fun. Fiscal decisions are quotidian and hit at the moral fiber of the people and leaders. Will you The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-14317101743149936832011-08-18T07:59:00.004-04:002011-08-18T08:46:43.882-04:00Been a Long TimeI have not been posting anything here because I have a professional conflict. I cannot ethically or responsibly talk about banks, given my position. So, I won't.
So, I'll just posit a ramble.
Hyperinflation will not come. To step back a second and define terms, let's call hyperinflation something greater than 15% headline inflation (core inflation is basically meaningless to anyone who spends The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-39110320133173245622010-10-01T08:40:00.002-04:002010-10-01T09:37:04.030-04:00Ups, Downs, Tops, Bottoms -- Who You AreThe rise and fall of financial voices. Cramer when the market's hot. Roubini when the depths of our sins are about to be laid bare. Krugman and DeLong when order jells with righteous anger. Paul and the Gold Bugs play a catchy tune of anarchic and revolutionary proportions. Jim Rogers when an escape seems the safest route. Liz Ann Sonders when common sense seems like a good plan.These The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-42670185894005850842010-09-17T08:44:00.003-04:002010-09-17T08:47:11.718-04:00Not Just MeAnd so we've cycled back. We killed the Joneses. Not in the sense that we bested them at materialist poker. We're poor. When I say we I mean it's not just me. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/16/AR2010091602698_pf.htmlSmart money will realize this.There's no free money to let us play pretend rich. We're really hurting. How do the pitchfork tines feel, Joneses?The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-8321716150669081762010-08-10T14:21:00.002-04:002010-08-10T14:27:15.208-04:00NumbersJust for fun, let's throw out some numbers.2% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to stave off deflation.3% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to stave off further unemployment.4% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to convince sideline money that recovery is actually in full swing.6% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to make a dent in unemployment. 10% -- the amount of reduction yet needed in The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-45851641126291800612010-08-06T08:23:00.003-04:002010-08-06T09:39:50.985-04:00Deflationary Cold Sore Cream -- Rock Bottom PricesI keep reading about all the wrong reasons to fear deflation. Deflation, in itself, will naturally find a bottom. Risk takers and fools will see to it. At some point, risk takers and fools simply cannot help themselves. They will buy stuff, and lots of it, whether it be stocks, raw materials, or cheapened labor. The problem with our deflation is not the falling prices, per se. It's the dealThe Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-2682706495810409942010-07-15T10:34:00.003-04:002010-07-15T10:45:29.878-04:00Nipponification?To pick up on a theme, is American going to go the way of Japan? By this I don't mean xenophobic and robot-obsessed. Rather, will we see continued economic stagnation, zero interest rates, employment only held together through wasteful and purposeless government spending, and long term declines in asset values (i.e., Dow 1000, home values declining another 50-70%, etc.)?The answer hinges on theThe Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-34163337480734089862010-07-14T08:27:00.002-04:002010-07-14T08:32:34.133-04:00For the RecordJust for the record, I gave up on the Administration when they pursued cap-and-trade and health care reform while ignoring the unabated bloodletting of geographically pervasive layoffs. You can pick your principles and form your own ideals in life, but you don't usually get to pick your challenges and crises. I really and truly cannot fathom how the Administration failed to see the The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-19675493329662717722010-07-06T09:42:00.003-04:002010-07-06T10:28:49.288-04:00More on Deflation - Daniel GrossI like reading Daniel Gross, but he's been mailing it in for about five months now. Probably fatigue from peddling his book. But, now he's just getting sloppy.Economists generally agree that deflation is a widespread fall in prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI).That economists generally agree on anything is news to me. Deflation has many definitions. Some would argue that there The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-60336013953611927212010-07-01T14:35:00.002-04:002010-07-01T14:47:58.216-04:00Indeflation, or Indigestion?Deflation is still real, thanks to European banks holding sketchy sovereign debt. The poor stock markets are getting battered as the carry trade reverses. How this works is simple: European banks borrow dollars or yen, then trade stocks with the borrowed money. Basically, the banks are playing with free money because the borrowing rates that big players enjoy are close to zero. Well, now the The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-23205684730184971852010-06-14T20:36:00.002-04:002010-06-14T20:48:56.664-04:00Bilderberg UpdateThe Bilderberg Brahmins released their "agenda":The Conference will deal mainly with Financial Reform, Security, CyberTechnology, Energy, Pakistan, Afghanistan, World Food Problem, Global Cooling,Social Networking, Medical Science, EU-US relations.Here is what I expected they would discuss:Debt deflation Spain Greece Turkey Maintaining European competitive advantage against emerging economies The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-23216489862903104472010-06-04T19:23:00.002-04:002010-06-04T19:32:27.632-04:00Bilderburg 2010I'm not into the Alex Jones scene, believe me, but Bilderburg always gets me thinking. Based on the leaked attendees list, here is my take on the themes:Debt deflationSpainGreeceTurkeyMaintaining European competitive advantage against emerging economiesSocial decline of the westThink I'm wrong? Then why did Niall Ferguson get the invite, but Krugman didn't? If I was in charge, I would arrange The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-62509592818922021852010-04-29T09:48:00.002-04:002010-04-29T09:50:56.804-04:00PIMCOAm I the only one who thinks that PIMCO is behind all the public debt hysteria? Like the the Rothschilds before them, PIMCO will make a fortune by convincing everyone that public debt must be reduced -- which would decrease the supply of bonds, which would increase their market price.The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-25910078889148408252010-04-28T08:57:00.002-04:002010-04-28T09:17:38.464-04:00Two Simple ThoughtsIf the economy is going to lag, then seeking dividends is the only sensible way to allocate capital.If employment stays low, then interest rates will, too. That's how the Fed works. Thus, assets will re-inflate (cheap money is too tempting to pass up), which will set the stage for yet another burst bubble (a bank failure in Austria was the spark that ignited the Great Depression). If that's The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-44684607673238050942010-04-07T09:40:00.003-04:002010-04-07T09:42:52.190-04:00Home Prices: Or, Why We Hate EconomistsHere is probably the most ridiculous evaluation of home prices I have ever seen. Seriously, I read better analysis in the comments below Tech Ticker postings on Yahoo! finance.http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/why-your-houses-value-probably-wont-rise/Of all the things that factor into a home's price, cost of construction is ridiculously inconsequential. The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-68974241144193599632010-03-08T09:34:00.001-05:002010-03-08T09:35:51.005-05:00economy bottomAbout a year ago I accurately called the stock market bottom. Today I am making the same claim about the economy as a whole. One caveat, it will be a slog. Deflation is still a very real threat as banks continue to write down loan losses.The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-5882739975555928432009-12-18T08:41:00.002-05:002009-12-18T08:43:50.308-05:00FailSo, health care reform is going to fail because the President has failed to express an underlying principle (is it cost reduction, or is it expansion of coverage -- the message is mixed up). Meanwhile, he has committed to a surge strategy in Afghanistan and we remain forever in Iraq. And the TARP banks are repaying despite the fact that they haven't shrunk enough to cease posing systemic The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-31627304704322042392009-12-15T07:27:00.002-05:002009-12-15T07:32:47.632-05:00InterviewsI hate job interviews. I believe I could sell anything, but when it comes to marketing myself, I have a full blown panic attack. The reasons for this remain elusive, but I am certain about one thing. If the goal was to be as self-critical as possible, I think I would be the best interviewee ever.The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-15754369233684001112009-11-16T07:45:00.002-05:002009-11-16T08:28:28.657-05:00Intentional Ambiguity in HeraclitusI have been pondering Heraclitus' first fragment all weekend. Commentary beginning with Aristotle points out the ambiguity in the first line: "Of this Word which holds forever men prove uncomprehending." Is forever modifying holds or men? The meaning is altered slightly depending on how you approach the grammar.Yet, there is another ambiguity that puzzles me. Word, or Logos, can have two meaningsThe Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-5911156840055945682009-10-28T12:13:00.002-04:002009-10-28T12:24:08.750-04:00Karzai and the CIAhttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/world/asia/28intel.html?emWhenever I talk to anyone who has had interactions with high level officials in foreign lands, they are always quick to mention who is on the CIA's payroll. At first I was skeptical. Having seen time and again those rumors and gossip statements ultimately proved correct, I conclude that the CIA is only covert in one country -- the USA.The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-17857558449391259242009-10-14T12:47:00.002-04:002009-10-14T12:53:32.095-04:00He's HotI have a man crush on Martin Wolf:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9165b8b0-b82a-11de-8ca9-00144feab49a.htmlI wish the US had just one MSM finance/economics writer with as much perspicacity. Lewis comes close, I guess.But, to discuss Wolf's argument, he seems to suggest that nations should better utilize the Special Drawing Rights (or some other basket of currencies) for the purposes of international The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-33873854055787893842009-10-14T11:41:00.003-04:002009-10-14T11:45:33.408-04:00GoldI almost feel bad for the gold bugs. Don't they know they're riding high on a commodities bubbles fueled by Chinese stockpiling? Once the market discounts the inevitable Chinese pullback from minerals, gold will take a major hit. So many of the gold bugs are buoyed not by market fundamentals, but by market principles. They mistake their politics for the way of the world. Sorry, fellas, they The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-54957861590724600172009-10-14T11:36:00.002-04:002009-10-14T11:41:08.869-04:00Deflationary ThreatRemember, here's the game. The financial system is on life support. We won't know the extent of the damage for at least two more years. Until then, the government will be lending free money to the banks (whether through the discount window at the Fed, or through purchases of agency debt -- which provides liquidity to the lending market). That's just how it's going to be. To prevent dollar The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-11277329775008811392009-10-13T08:41:00.002-04:002009-10-13T08:45:38.326-04:00It's Not You, It's MeEnjoyable op-ed on the potential fallout from red versus blue state health care debates:http://finance.yahoo.com/insurance/article/107941/let-the-red-states-secede.htmlThough it is a stretch to suggest that health care could be solved by dissolving the polygamous marriage of 50 states, the thinking is not reductio ad absurdum.Some food for thought:But America is starting to resemble those other The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0