Championship Ingredients: The Bench

There are many factors to analyze when making NBA predictions of which team will win the championship. Who has the best player? Who has the best team? Who has the best chemistry? Who has the best defense? Who has the right mix of youthful athleticism and veteran savvy?

All of those inquiries can yield intriguing insights into the components of a successful NBA season. I was reading today about the Raptors’ lack of bench cohesion and it made me think of the importance of the reinforcements in deciding the outcome of a game. No one would underestimate the value of a strong starting five, especially when it features a Hall-destined scorer like Kobe or MJ. At the same time, however, the top six players on a team are the most heavily scouted and most heavily mocked in opponents’ practices. If you’re the Bucks, for example, you practice in expectation of neutralizing the jump shooters that litter the Bulls’ roster. You don’t ponder the intricacies of Thabo Sefalosha’s crossover or worry about Aaron Gray’s strongside rebounding position. Who cares? They only play for a few minutes each game, if at all.

Nonetheless, bench play can spark a rally, re-energize a discombobulated first team, or simply force the opponents out of their comfort zone. I think of last year’s Celtics with Posey, Powe, and House coming off the bench and instantly going on the attack. They played without ego or expectation, eager only to vie for the W. I recall Horry throughout his career doing the same thing, and also providing veteran leadership to keep bench malcontents from infecting team play. I think of the Pistons and the debt owed to players like Salley, Rodman, Edwards, Microwave, Hunter, McDyess, and Maxiell. I think of Thompson, Cooper, and Rambis keeping Showtime flowing even when the superstars were resting.

So, the question that emerges is which elite teams in 08-09 have the bench fury needed for the rise to the top.

Boston Celtics
Bench Stalwarts: House, Cassell, Big Baby, Powe, Tony Allen, Bill Walker
Analysis: If Cassell can actually play, this must be regarded as the cream of the bench crop. Walker and Allen are certifiably insane. You can’t coach against that. If these two are kept in check by Powe and veteran House, then collateral damage will be minimal. Strengths include confidence and scoring ability. This lineup would be better if it had a thirsty rebounder, though.
Grade: A (they won last year, ain’t that good enough for an A?)

LA Lakers
Bench Stalwarts: Odom, Farmar, Ariza, Walton the Younger
Analysis: This analysis is predicated on the assumption that the starting five somehow requires Vlad in order to appease Phil Jackson’s need to insert mental instability into the team’s chemistry. This bench lineup includes athleticism, scoring, and passing. If they jell, this could be a real difference maker in the Lakers’ quest for another banner.
Grade: A, but only if Odom learns to love the bench, otherwise a C.

San Antonio Spurs
Bench Stalwarts: who knows?
Analysis: Manu is injured for half the season. Presumably that means he will come back as a bench player. Will Horry even return? If so, can he play? The rest of the bench is nebulous. Bonner thinks he’s a gunner. Stoudamire thinks he’s still Mighty Mouse. Mahinmi is an unknown quantity. Either Oberto or Kurt Thomas will start, but neither alone is a game changer. Their strengths are best utilized around good players.
Grade: F. This pains me as a long time Spurs fan.

New Orleans Hornets
Bench Stalwarts: I don’t know.
Analysis: Julian Wright stands to improve on the flashes of brilliance he displayed last year. Bonzi Wells might decide he’s a basketball player this year. Either Mo Pete or Po-Z with start; the other will provide defense and shooting off the bench. Maybe Hilton Armstrong will develop. One thing that is certain is that Ely will prove to be a good second-string rebounder.
Grade: D (for now). If the bench rallies around the personality and leadership of Posey, I would expect that the Hornets will be strong contenders to unseat the Lakers.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Bench Stalwarts: Boobie, West, Andy, Wally.
Analysis: Assuming Pavlovic can round into starter shape and push World to the bench, the Cavs stand to have a strong second string attack. World and Boobie are excellent spot up shooters. Delonte West can run an offense as well as score. Varejao is one of the most annoying characters on the offensive boards. If Szszszszserbiack gets it into his head that he’s on planet Earth and not Wally World, this could be the year that LeBron gets his crown.
Grade: B+

Houston Rockets
Bench Stalwarts: Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks, Brent Barry, Dikembe
Analysis: For some reason, I always think that Brent Barry looks like Robin Hood. His brother, on the other hand, looks like the Sheriff of Nottingham. I wonder if I could get a research grant to see if the ancient foes were also brothers. The Rockets could run a second line of Barry at the one, Battier at the two, and Hayes, Landry, and Mutombo all at the five. Is there a tougher second line in the NBA? Is there a better defensive squad than that? For some reason, I like it a lot.
Grade: A- (for lack of scoring on the second line, which would be fixed by starting Hayes/Landry and putting Scola in contention with Battier for 6th man of the year.)

Philadelphia 76ers
Bench Stalwarts: Williams, Smith, Evans
Analysis: First off, the Sixers are only here because of the strength of the starting five and the lack of another team worth mentioning in the East (sorry Detroit, Toronto, and Orlando). With Smith and Evans you get rebounding and intangibles. Louis can score. The question for the Sixers' bench will be whether they can get notable contributions from Ivey, AARP members Ratliff and Marshall, and the mercurial Kareem Rush.
Grade: C- (rated this high only because Williams is projected to be a contender for 6th Man)

Phoenix Suns
Bench Stalwarts: Barbosa, Diaw, Sgt. Barnes, Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic
Analysis: If Goran can just get the ball to Barbosa, and if Lopez can pull down the defensive rebounds, this is a great second team. Barnes, Diaw, and Blur could each contend for 6th Man. Plus, Blur and Barnes will be like Manu, de facto starters even though they come off the bench. Lopez might find himself in the same shoes when Shaq gets injured.
Grade: A

Portland Trail Blazers
Bench Stalwarts: Hold on, let’s figure out their starting five, first. Blake, Roy, Webster, Aldridge, Oden. Sounds reasonable through mid-December. After that, though, Bayless, Rodiguez, and Fernandez will all be pushing Blake to the pine. For now, though, the bench brigade will be: Bayless, Rodriguez, Fernandez, Pryzbilla, Frye, Outlaw, and Diogu.
Analysis: The bench could beat some starting fives (I’m talking about you, Charlotte and Sacramento). That’s why I’m including the Blazers even though I think by season end they’ll still be looking to lock up a playoff spot. Even when Blake gets relegated to the second team, there will be a lot of weapons. As an opposing coach, I think Portland would give me fits, especially once they come together as a team and accept Roy and Oden as their leaders. To that end, Roy is ready to be Le Roi, but Oden still has a lot to prove. If Oden can simply avoid injury and clog the middle, I think by the All Star break that the team will be finding its identity. The unknowns are how the foreign players will mesh. I think Outlaw, Pryzbilla, and Frye will all thrive in their auxiliary roles, but Sergio, Rudy, and Jerryd will all be approaching each game like they think they should be starting. A move that traded some of these young guys for a Championship-starved veteran would be a wise move.
Grade: B+ (because I have real doubts about chemistry, despite MacMillan’s cool hand)

Notably omitted: Dallas (put a fork in them), Utah (bench is too boring to discuss), Nuggets (not an elite team).