Ups, Downs, Tops, Bottoms -- Who You Are

The rise and fall of financial voices. Cramer when the market's hot. Roubini when the depths of our sins are about to be laid bare. Krugman and DeLong when order jells with righteous anger. Paul and the Gold Bugs play a catchy tune of anarchic and revolutionary proportions. Jim Rogers when an escape seems the safest route. Liz Ann Sonders when common sense seems like a good plan.

These people are all absolutely correct -- some of the time. When, though? And how does one know when to tune in to whom?

To digress, I think sometimes about the fortunes of musicians. Some do their best work when no one knows who they are, or cares what they sound like. Metallica, Verve, Faith No More, Franz Ferdinand, Pink Floyd, Tori Amos. They all did their best work before deemed "successful" by the mainstream. Rising from nowhere they embodied the pure joy of musical expression, limitless and chaotic, driven by a single thread of beauty. Once they found success and fame, they lose that thread and become conservative, undifferentiated from their own impostors.

Others thrive at the top. They seem perennially capable of churning out hits. Fame and success seem to justify their existence, rather than cast doubt upon their purpose. Jay Z, The Rolling Stones, AC/DC, Madonna.

Some musicians find a way to thrive even after the fame and success fade. No longer in the spotlight, they are free to just make music. Their way. Maybe without expanding their creative impulse into new sounds. Maybe just playing the same old songs they love to play. Some of these acts become staples at weddings, bar mitzvahs, and proms. Others dwell in a land of perpetual expression. Jimmy Buffett, The Grateful Dead, De La Soul.

Rarest of all are the artists who start off with a bang, but continue to evolve and change unfazed by the stultifying effects of fame and money. The Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Damon Albarn. (are there any Americans who can do this?) I wonder what enables these types to do what they do. How strong must one's ego be to withstand the hangers-on, the sycophants, the pressure to produce an expected result?

The last are those who never made it, never will. And that's ok. I think this is what Kurt Cobain wanted. Maybe they desperately want to be heard. Maybe they enjoy being the barracuda in the kiddie pool.

Back to the financial realm.

The reason why technical analysis works -- and also why fundamental investors like myself are so suspicious of it -- is because people listen to the voices they feel like hearing. They want to be reinforced in their opinion of today. They want comfort. They want to feel the pleasure of a good tune, as befits the mood. Fundamentally, we're talking about chord progressions, harmonies, rhythms. The elements of song. Industrial demand, price to earnings, projected sales, debt load. Really, we're talking about the heart and soul of what it means to be a person in the world. Let It Be?