I Should Be Paid More

On the morning of March 4, the S&P 500 was just under 700. It is now trading at just under 840. Yeah, a 20% gain.

What is the significance of March 4? Simply this: that is the day I called the bottom. Granted, the S&P 500 went down another 20 points in the week following my pronouncement, but it has only gone up since. Pretty good for a petty bureaucrat.

Why am I awesome? Well, go read the news from the week leading up to my bottom call and tell me you would have made the same call. You would not have done so. Admit it ;-).

I revisit this today as a followup, not just as an opportunity to brag. The credit markets will now completely thaw thanks to the mark-to-market rule revisions. For the record, I do not favor the revision, but it will help to stabilize the secondary market and shore up major banks' capital positions. Of course, it's all smoke and mirrors, but that's the way it's gonna be.

There are still more gut-wrenching job loss statistics on the way, but I truly believe that these figures are a lagging indicator. The news will ask the question: why is Factor X (whether it be the stock market, consumer spending, consumer confidence, whatever) increasing while unemployment is still so high?

All of these good tidings will soften the coming fall of GM and Chrysler. Hopefully they will be disaggregated expeditiously.

Will we see another 20% increase over the next month? Maybe. I wouldn't be surprised. I won't make any pronouncements about it, though.