Tuesday, December 30, 2008

2009 Predictions - Saxo Bank

As reprinted on Yahoo! Finance, Saxo Bank made its annual predictions, with my comments to follow in blue.

They are:
  1. Iranian Revolution -- Only if the US goes into Civil War as predicted by a Russian analyst.
  2. Crude Oil to $25 -- Our only hope for a quick recovery.
  3. S&P 500 to 500 -- A necessary correction to match historical values.
  4. Italy could drop the euro -- Will Italy be the first? I think there is a behind-the-scenes race to exit the euro, which will intensify as the Eurozone continues to stagnate.
  5. Australian dollar slump versus yen -- Predicated on continued commodities plunge, but one has to wonder what the yen has to offer nevertheless, especially when Japan absolutely needs some inflation to prevent defaulting on its bonds. Oh never mind, Japan owes mostly to itself, so default is meaningless. Keep making debt, Japan! It's a small wonder they haven't increased their official debt to GDP ratio to 1000000%. That would stimulate something.
  6. Dollar to outstrip the euro -- How can this be when the eurozone is fighting inflation and the US will need some inflation to make Bernanke's upcoming Quantitative Easing regime work?
  7. Chinese GDP to 0% growth -- No way. With their weak currency, they'll just find buyers in India and Latin America.
  8. Eastern European forex pegs to fail -- Haven't they already failed?
  9. Commodities prices to plunge -- Ain't I been saying this? Let's pray this is wrong.
  10. (Chinese) Yen to become the currency peg -- If the dollar and the euro continue their wild swings, the Chinese artificial currency valuations will look attractive for small economies. Remember Argentina!

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