November 5, 2008

Numerous thoughts on the day after the historic election of Barack Obama:

• There used to be slaves in the White House.
  
• Obama has not shared his vision with us to the fullest extent. Political viability prohibits it. People are going to be shocked and dismayed about certain things. For example, watch affirmative action die away. Conservatives will ask why there should be affirmative action when a black man has been elected president, which should effectively wipe away all remaining badges and incidents of slavery. That argument will catch hold. I predict that Obama will only give lukewarm support to affirmative action while strongly emphasizing the need for individual accountability.
  
• We will see America and Europe work together on pollution and climate change. In reality, the two spheres are not far apart. What has been needed is an executive willing to frame the issue as one of diplomacy rather than one of domestic economics. I think Obama will see it through the lens of diplomacy.
  
• Obama’s economic legacy will be more Square Deal than New Deal. Personally, I think that is the appropriate measure. What we need is not massive government hiring, but rather a system and culture that demands that workers get treated like humans, a system that values the psychological and moral reward of gainful employment rather than treats labor as a collection of fungible assets. We live in a society, not a marketplace. I go to Wal-Mart; I don’t live in Wal-Mart.
  
• We will see two months of America’s rivals jockeying to simultaneously provoke Bush and predetermine Obama’s initial foreign policy. Russia today moved missiles and electronic jammers into Kaliningrad. Israel and Palestine have commenced killing each other again. North Korea has already ratcheted up the bellicosity. What will Iran do? What will Syria do?
  
• I think Obama will continue the anti-secular trend, to my dismay.
  
• Not even Obama can fix what’s wrong with education. Only personal accountability and a judicial/legislative limitation on what parents can sue for will fix education. I see the decline of educational performance as a problem with personal standards and discipline, rather than a failure of providing incentives or a proper curriculum.
  
• Obama will have his first falling out with the Democratic Congress over the issue of financial stimulus. I think Obama will not support another check distribution, but will rather look for a more comprehensive and meaningful demand-side bailout to buttress whatever will be done with TARP.
  
• His personality and ethical determination to listen to his opponents will win him some unexpected allies (Lieberman, Hagel), and earn him some dogged enemies from within his own party. Watch this create a schism in the Democratic party’s second tier of leaders, with people like Pelosi and Reid leading the partisan brigades against bipartisan pragmatists like Steny Hoyer. As Clinton tries to retain relevance, it will be interesting to see how she plays this.
  
• Health care reform will not even get touched during year one. There are too many immediate problems to fix as soon as he gets into office.
  
• USA is officially transitioning to the post-Boomer era. Technology, practical ecology, work-life balance, entrepreneurship will be key components.
  
• Evangelicals are too numerous to be stereotyped. Watch this unfold: increasing numbers of non-insane, non-insecure evangelical Christians will want to contribute to and be a part of the cultural changes Obama’s election will create. Environmentalism, charity, education, and foreign aid are important to this type of evangelical.
  
• The "true conservative" movement will gain more traction. The large numbers of people who voted Republican in the past do not hold much sympathy for the blue blooded Wall Street sycophants who have dominated their party. I think of the points of view of many of my family members. They don't want big government. They don't want restrictions on their personal freedoms. They don't want to reward those who put forth less effort than themselves. They don't want wars for oil. They don't want valor exercised for greed, or personal sacrifice made for the gain of a few. This is a principled position. Obama exemplified the candidate that post-Boomer liberals want. Who will come from the right to give action and words to conservative populism? Ron Paul is ancient. Sarah Palin is a fraud. Bob Barr looks like a pervo. What about Jesse Ventura? He was a fine governor (and I mean that in all seriousness).