Friday, January 16, 2009

Calling the Bottom (psych!)

I earlier pointed out that Sonders of Schwab could have called the bottom, but didn't. The market has now lost all the recent gains and is negative for the year and appear to be going lower yet. How could that be, if the major funds have all delevered and sold to meet losses? Shouldn't there be nowhere else to put money besides equities? Well, that's because a) this is a credit crisis like none other, b) other investors are hoping for Obama's stimulus package to bring the same magic to the economy that his team brought to the campaign, and c) we are in the midst of an economic correction without historical parallel.

With that, who in their right mind would call a bottom at this time? No one can possibly know.

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