tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9870342370136186602011-09-21T08:39:53.318-04:00A blog about awesome. "I'm having a breakthrough day."The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.comBlogger1101100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-41043095183518676322011-09-21T08:34:00.003-04:002011-09-21T08:39:53.324-04:00

Just a quick note, mostly to self. You can't separate the fiscal from the financial. Given the differences, it's easy to see how the Europeans permitted the creation of a sovereign monetary union, without sovereign fiscal unity. Financial decisions are strategic, amoral, and are generally a lot of fun. Fiscal decisions are quotidian and hit at the moral fiber of the people and leaders. Will you

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-14317101743149936832011-08-18T07:59:00.004-04:002011-08-18T08:46:43.882-04:00

I have not been posting anything here because I have a professional conflict. I cannot ethically or responsibly talk about banks, given my position. So, I won't. So, I'll just posit a ramble. Hyperinflation will not come. To step back a second and define terms, let's call hyperinflation something greater than 15% headline inflation (core inflation is basically meaningless to anyone who spends

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-39110320133173245622010-10-01T08:40:00.002-04:002010-10-01T09:37:04.030-04:00

The rise and fall of financial voices. Cramer when the market's hot. Roubini when the depths of our sins are about to be laid bare. Krugman and DeLong when order jells with righteous anger. Paul and the Gold Bugs play a catchy tune of anarchic and revolutionary proportions. Jim Rogers when an escape seems the safest route. Liz Ann Sonders when common sense seems like a good plan.These

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-42670185894005850842010-09-17T08:44:00.003-04:002010-09-17T08:47:11.718-04:00

And so we've cycled back. We killed the Joneses. Not in the sense that we bested them at materialist poker. We're poor. When I say we I mean it's not just me. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/16/AR2010091602698_pf.htmlSmart money will realize this.There's no free money to let us play pretend rich. We're really hurting. How do the pitchfork tines feel, Joneses?

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-8321716150669081762010-08-10T14:21:00.002-04:002010-08-10T14:27:15.208-04:00

Just for fun, let's throw out some numbers.2% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to stave off deflation.3% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to stave off further unemployment.4% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to convince sideline money that recovery is actually in full swing.6% -- the amount of GDP growth needed to make a dent in unemployment. 10% -- the amount of reduction yet needed in

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-45851641126291800612010-08-06T08:23:00.003-04:002010-08-06T09:39:50.985-04:00

I keep reading about all the wrong reasons to fear deflation. Deflation, in itself, will naturally find a bottom. Risk takers and fools will see to it. At some point, risk takers and fools simply cannot help themselves. They will buy stuff, and lots of it, whether it be stocks, raw materials, or cheapened labor. The problem with our deflation is not the falling prices, per se. It's the deal

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-2682706495810409942010-07-15T10:34:00.003-04:002010-07-15T10:45:29.878-04:00

To pick up on a theme, is American going to go the way of Japan? By this I don't mean xenophobic and robot-obsessed. Rather, will we see continued economic stagnation, zero interest rates, employment only held together through wasteful and purposeless government spending, and long term declines in asset values (i.e., Dow 1000, home values declining another 50-70%, etc.)?The answer hinges on the

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-34163337480734089862010-07-14T08:27:00.002-04:002010-07-14T08:32:34.133-04:00

Just for the record, I gave up on the Administration when they pursued cap-and-trade and health care reform while ignoring the unabated bloodletting of geographically pervasive layoffs. You can pick your principles and form your own ideals in life, but you don't usually get to pick your challenges and crises. I really and truly cannot fathom how the Administration failed to see the

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-19675493329662717722010-07-06T09:42:00.003-04:002010-07-06T10:28:49.288-04:00

I like reading Daniel Gross, but he's been mailing it in for about five months now. Probably fatigue from peddling his book. But, now he's just getting sloppy.Economists generally agree that deflation is a widespread fall in prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI).That economists generally agree on anything is news to me. Deflation has many definitions. Some would argue that there

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-60336013953611927212010-07-01T14:35:00.002-04:002010-07-01T14:47:58.216-04:00

Deflation is still real, thanks to European banks holding sketchy sovereign debt. The poor stock markets are getting battered as the carry trade reverses. How this works is simple: European banks borrow dollars or yen, then trade stocks with the borrowed money. Basically, the banks are playing with free money because the borrowing rates that big players enjoy are close to zero. Well, now the

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-23205684730184971852010-06-14T20:36:00.002-04:002010-06-14T20:48:56.664-04:00

The Bilderberg Brahmins released their "agenda":The Conference will deal mainly with Financial Reform, Security, CyberTechnology, Energy, Pakistan, Afghanistan, World Food Problem, Global Cooling,Social Networking, Medical Science, EU-US relations.Here is what I expected they would discuss:Debt deflation Spain Greece Turkey Maintaining European competitive advantage against emerging economies

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-23216489862903104472010-06-04T19:23:00.002-04:002010-06-04T19:32:27.632-04:00

I'm not into the Alex Jones scene, believe me, but Bilderburg always gets me thinking. Based on the leaked attendees list, here is my take on the themes:Debt deflationSpainGreeceTurkeyMaintaining European competitive advantage against emerging economiesSocial decline of the westThink I'm wrong? Then why did Niall Ferguson get the invite, but Krugman didn't? If I was in charge, I would arrange

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-62509592818922021852010-04-29T09:48:00.002-04:002010-04-29T09:50:56.804-04:00

Am I the only one who thinks that PIMCO is behind all the public debt hysteria? Like the the Rothschilds before them, PIMCO will make a fortune by convincing everyone that public debt must be reduced -- which would decrease the supply of bonds, which would increase their market price.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-25910078889148408252010-04-28T08:57:00.002-04:002010-04-28T09:17:38.464-04:00

If the economy is going to lag, then seeking dividends is the only sensible way to allocate capital.If employment stays low, then interest rates will, too. That's how the Fed works. Thus, assets will re-inflate (cheap money is too tempting to pass up), which will set the stage for yet another burst bubble (a bank failure in Austria was the spark that ignited the Great Depression). If that's

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-44684607673238050942010-04-07T09:40:00.003-04:002010-04-07T09:42:52.190-04:00

Here is probably the most ridiculous evaluation of home prices I have ever seen. Seriously, I read better analysis in the comments below Tech Ticker postings on Yahoo! finance.http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/why-your-houses-value-probably-wont-rise/Of all the things that factor into a home's price, cost of construction is ridiculously inconsequential.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-68974241144193599632010-03-08T09:34:00.001-05:002010-03-08T09:35:51.005-05:00

About a year ago I accurately called the stock market bottom. Today I am making the same claim about the economy as a whole. One caveat, it will be a slog. Deflation is still a very real threat as banks continue to write down loan losses.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-5882739975555928432009-12-18T08:41:00.002-05:002009-12-18T08:43:50.308-05:00

So, health care reform is going to fail because the President has failed to express an underlying principle (is it cost reduction, or is it expansion of coverage -- the message is mixed up). Meanwhile, he has committed to a surge strategy in Afghanistan and we remain forever in Iraq. And the TARP banks are repaying despite the fact that they haven't shrunk enough to cease posing systemic

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-31627304704322042392009-12-15T07:27:00.002-05:002009-12-15T07:32:47.632-05:00

I hate job interviews. I believe I could sell anything, but when it comes to marketing myself, I have a full blown panic attack. The reasons for this remain elusive, but I am certain about one thing. If the goal was to be as self-critical as possible, I think I would be the best interviewee ever.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-15754369233684001112009-11-16T07:45:00.002-05:002009-11-16T08:28:28.657-05:00

I have been pondering Heraclitus' first fragment all weekend. Commentary beginning with Aristotle points out the ambiguity in the first line: "Of this Word which holds forever men prove uncomprehending." Is forever modifying holds or men? The meaning is altered slightly depending on how you approach the grammar.Yet, there is another ambiguity that puzzles me. Word, or Logos, can have two meanings

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-5911156840055945682009-10-28T12:13:00.002-04:002009-10-28T12:24:08.750-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/world/asia/28intel.html?emWhenever I talk to anyone who has had interactions with high level officials in foreign lands, they are always quick to mention who is on the CIA's payroll. At first I was skeptical. Having seen time and again those rumors and gossip statements ultimately proved correct, I conclude that the CIA is only covert in one country -- the USA.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-17857558449391259242009-10-14T12:47:00.002-04:002009-10-14T12:53:32.095-04:00

I have a man crush on Martin Wolf:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9165b8b0-b82a-11de-8ca9-00144feab49a.htmlI wish the US had just one MSM finance/economics writer with as much perspicacity. Lewis comes close, I guess.But, to discuss Wolf's argument, he seems to suggest that nations should better utilize the Special Drawing Rights (or some other basket of currencies) for the purposes of international

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-33873854055787893842009-10-14T11:41:00.003-04:002009-10-14T11:45:33.408-04:00

I almost feel bad for the gold bugs. Don't they know they're riding high on a commodities bubbles fueled by Chinese stockpiling? Once the market discounts the inevitable Chinese pullback from minerals, gold will take a major hit. So many of the gold bugs are buoyed not by market fundamentals, but by market principles. They mistake their politics for the way of the world. Sorry, fellas, they

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-54957861590724600172009-10-14T11:36:00.002-04:002009-10-14T11:41:08.869-04:00

Remember, here's the game. The financial system is on life support. We won't know the extent of the damage for at least two more years. Until then, the government will be lending free money to the banks (whether through the discount window at the Fed, or through purchases of agency debt -- which provides liquidity to the lending market). That's just how it's going to be. To prevent dollar

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-11277329775008811392009-10-13T08:41:00.002-04:002009-10-13T08:45:38.326-04:00

Enjoyable op-ed on the potential fallout from red versus blue state health care debates:http://finance.yahoo.com/insurance/article/107941/let-the-red-states-secede.htmlThough it is a stretch to suggest that health care could be solved by dissolving the polygamous marriage of 50 states, the thinking is not reductio ad absurdum.Some food for thought:But America is starting to resemble those other

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-554049496231193082009-09-24T11:58:00.001-04:002009-09-24T11:58:29.146-04:00

Worth a quick read, but stick around for the punchline:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aBG26d6aO25U

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-86254994784630711092009-09-24T08:21:00.003-04:002009-09-24T09:35:28.881-04:00

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been blogging with ferocity lately. Common sense dictates that the dollar is facing a huge decline, and many important actors are positioned for such an eventuality.One would think that the Federal Reserve would be listening to this and tightening up QE and interest rates.But you have to think bigger before blaming the Fed. Assess these facts:1. The finance industry

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-30994189675466160082009-09-18T08:44:00.002-04:002009-09-18T08:51:36.864-04:00

This market is like the weather. Everyone with good eyes can see the clouds are still forming, but just right now it's balmy with a slight sea breeze. Let's have a picnic and eat some GE and FNM. Wash it down with some commodities ETFs.Those clouds are there, and prudent minds remain risk averse. We just hope that if the storm does pass, there will be enough left at the table.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-73760370640000777532009-09-10T08:12:00.004-04:002009-09-10T09:10:38.864-04:00

If you haven't seen That Mitchell and Webb Look, you don't know Numberwang. And you're missing out.Numberwang is absurdist comedy in the tradition of Monty Python or the sketches SNL shows in the last five minutes of the program. A gameshow, contestants must guess the correct number in a variety of challenges. Losers suffer humiliation or even injury. But how does one win? That's numberwang.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-21398123357432966172009-09-04T07:58:00.000-04:002009-09-04T07:59:10.452-04:00

Great piece on the cupcake bubble:http://www.slate.com/id/2227216/

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-54694186648557809532009-08-27T07:57:00.003-04:002009-08-27T08:00:09.234-04:00

In certain circles, it is generally assumed that the Federal Reserve is broke. As in, Citi broke or Lehman Brothers broke. You look at what they've taken as collateral, or the ABS that they've taken on their books in exchange for Treasuries, and you have to wonder . . .Anyway, here is an article about the subject in a relatively mainstream outlet:http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-67869749400169924192009-08-25T08:36:00.003-04:002009-08-25T08:45:15.510-04:00

What annoys me the most about the stimulus efforts is the lack of focus. I would have been much happier if the bulk of the money had been spent on a national project, something enduring and which would propel the nation into the 21st or 22nd century. Instead, all the craptacular pet pork projects have reified our national status as a 20th century giant. Alas, time passes by, drowning some,

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-62459085925383125102009-08-14T14:14:00.003-04:002009-08-14T14:20:14.111-04:00

El-Arian speaks, at last. Not that he was holding his tongue or anything, but his inflation expectations remain steady. Key points of the article:Inflation is coming, and it is necessary, Which means a weaker dollar,And more stimulus has hit the states than most people expect.I take issue with the third point. There's a whole lot more stimulus coming. States' utilization of federal money is

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-44049385563533956632009-08-13T08:28:00.002-04:002009-08-13T08:44:08.017-04:00

I like to periodically check on my predictions. Otherwise, what's the point of making them? From July 6:1. Unemployment will be revised upward any day now to about 9.7%. Well, Cash 4 Clunkers plus the Census temps have put a momentary stop on the downward slide. No real jobs have been made, though. Layoffs are driving the stock market spike. Good stuff, right?2. The political masses will

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-8059127583599894102009-08-11T08:16:00.002-04:002009-08-11T08:18:12.733-04:00

The last big auction was a big success, driven by TARP banks' willingness to play nice and purchase a bunch of Treasury debt at underperforming yields. But it looks like the market is speaking again:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f48312a-85cd-11de-98de-00144feabdc0.html

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-28569346388744249082009-08-10T13:49:00.002-04:002009-08-10T14:28:50.727-04:00

He's smart. He's articulate. He writes well. He's got a great beard.But why do I think he's wrong about debt spending and a Keynesian solution to the economic crisis?In simple terms, the Keynesian approach during the Great Depression failed. After all of our competitors were destroyed, of course the US economy -- in relative terms -- skyrocketed. If a busload of Olympic swimmers gets in to a

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-21187702201474215362009-08-10T08:23:00.002-04:002009-08-10T08:26:12.062-04:00

It appears that my irritation and panic over jobs was a result of underestimating Americans' desire to buy cars. Good work, President Obama. But, uh, what are you going to do to save autumn from a collapse? America, where citizens get paid to shop.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-14032806008632048562009-08-05T07:35:00.002-04:002009-08-05T07:39:54.923-04:00

For those of you who know my outlook on the country, you might recognize this story as one of the indicators of the beginning of the national dissolution. The problem is not the imposition of Federal troops on state jurisdiction, but rather the fiscal failure of a locality to defend itself from its own citizens. Meanwhile, we fight two foreign wars, occupy bases all around the world to protect

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-75260296186807003832009-07-29T10:07:00.002-04:002009-07-29T10:23:31.667-04:00

The Old Gods required greater fortitude in their practice. Die with a sword in your hand, or no promised land. The simple salvation of Christianity was more desirable for the sheeple masses. Likewise, American Capitalism is meeting its demise. Neither Capitalism's warrior elite nor its sheeple consumers are willing to abide by the downside risk inherent in the practice. Will State Capitalism

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-22945690381341561292009-07-16T10:57:00.003-04:002009-07-16T11:20:51.059-04:00

Paul McCulley opined on pre-collapse work done by Krugman and Bernanke (hat tip to ZeroHedge). One thing that continues to irk me on the subject of the liquidity trap is the the failure to understand that money can exit a market and never return. Inflation is a closed system, bound by internal, national parameters. Same with interest rates on government bonds. But, equity ownership and real

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-16164371774718820382009-07-14T07:40:00.002-04:002009-07-14T07:45:34.882-04:00

This time on the WSJ, complete with some detailed criticisms of the unemployment stats. People are watching. This summer better show some signs of improvement, or there will be revolt against the President's policies. Stagnation won't be good enough.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-34197445875917437112009-07-10T14:01:00.002-04:002009-07-10T14:08:19.618-04:00

I agree with this guy. I wish the Gov't would just say "enough" and let Americans find our way through this mess. The financial industry is stable-ish. Good enough. Now everyone get back to work!Instead, investors and job hunters and entrepreneurs are all wondering what the Gov't is going to do, how the rules are going to change, and which industries are going to get puffed up with taxpayer

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-90400850400158981752009-07-06T07:46:00.002-04:002009-07-06T08:24:51.232-04:00

It has to be said. If Obama can't cap the job losses, his presidency will be a colossal failure. And if you think it's getting bad now, imagine what the next buffoon will do . . .Message to the President: forget tomorrow's problems. Today's are worse.Here is how the summer is about to unfold.1. Unemployment will be revised upward any day now to about 9.7%.2. The political masses will call for

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-24052534612232187872009-07-02T07:32:00.000-04:002009-07-02T07:33:23.910-04:00

What do I keep saying about jobs?http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124645016745579363.html#mod=testMod

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-23775687085218424182009-06-15T10:04:00.002-04:002009-06-15T10:09:50.639-04:00

Martin Wolf analyzed a recent GS research paper. Conclusion: Inflationary policies under Bush/Greenspan led to the credit bubble. How: inflation here decreased savings and increased borrowing.Net result: inflation led to inflation, which led to devaluation (naturally, as a correction), but which has led to drastic inflationary policies to prevent depression. Maybe those gold bugs got it right

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-3791990870112156072009-06-12T10:13:00.002-04:002009-06-12T10:15:40.115-04:00

I found this on Paul Kedrosky's blog. Naturally, he defined it as group think/mob behavior. I'm an optimist. The first dancer is a leader.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-9458277332404837462009-06-05T09:09:00.002-04:002009-06-05T09:20:21.085-04:00

Daniel Gross opined on the ongoing battle to interpret the spike in long-term T-Bill rates. Is the spike a signal from the market that the USG's long term health is at risk (Ferguson's view)? Or, does it signal a retreat from safety (Krugman's view)?My take on the matter was that it was a combination of factors. There are technical reasons to take cash out of 30 year Treasurys and reinvest them

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-70563057101807964282009-05-21T10:11:00.004-04:002009-05-21T11:58:35.612-04:00

Someone sent out the hounds, using fear of a weakening dollar as propaganda against the administration's policies. Yet as I have mentioned before, problems persist in the global economy (especially the European part of it). All major currencies will have to devalue themselves in the coming months. As the business cycle continues its downward trajectory, wise big money investors will continue to

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-22915472442685461082009-05-20T09:15:00.002-04:002009-05-20T09:37:55.982-04:00

Hello Ron Paul moonies, I would just like to point out that a gold standard can be manipulated in exactly the same ways as a fiat currency. Market forces have no more impact on a gold-based currency than a fiat currency.Those who favor a return to the gold standard (you know, the good ol' days before 1933) are in the same position as certain French or Japanese nobles were during the 16th century,

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-14798392977253906862009-05-18T10:41:00.002-04:002009-05-18T10:54:57.245-04:00

Bridgewater and John Mauldin are spreading the word. As I have mentioned before, the only priority right now should be job creation and establishing a backstop for the unemployed. This is all that matters right now. Forget North Korea and Iran. Let the DoJ handle the torture issue. Let FDIC raise funds for the eventual disintegration of one or more of the big banks. Jobs.Without them, we'll

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-33682604246052268782009-05-15T08:02:00.002-04:002009-05-15T08:13:43.443-04:00

I guess the President was reading Roubini's NYTimes Op-Ed.President Barack Obama, calling current deficit spending “unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from other countries.“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We have

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-690635765526870012009-05-14T15:00:00.003-04:002009-05-14T15:25:25.832-04:00

Nuriel Roubini (Someone buy this man a pink or yellow suit! Too much gloom dampens the intellect, Professor) captured the worldwide state of the economy in Forbes. Not a bad article, and I found myself nodding while reading it. Typically, his articles make my face scrunch up. Plus, having doublechecked his math, I tend to treat his proclamations with great skepticism.Of course, economics is a

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-9736425260353829102009-05-14T09:06:00.002-04:002009-05-14T09:35:06.602-04:00

The markets fear Obama too much. Like Foch, they're fighting the last war. Obama is not FDR or LBJ. His vision of wealth redistribution is retrospective and idealized, but not in a Marxist way. Think of him as small business Gandhi.Gandhi believed, perhaps accurately, that the cultural soul of India was found in the villages and rural farming communities across the country. Likewise, Obama

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-7697045485748387092009-05-14T08:48:00.003-04:002009-05-14T09:06:35.897-04:00

If the chatter is correct, and the big money behind the recent rally was mostly composed of short covers, then we're in for a pullback. Day traders got confused by the rally and ran up the prices on financials and oil. Both are under-valued, but both are suspect for quality. I still believe that oil prices will skyrocket again in the future, but the short run prospects are hard to gauge. I

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-4261498301607796842009-05-11T08:10:00.004-04:002009-05-11T09:28:00.238-04:00

Maybe the earlier sunlight is triggering neuroreceptors in some novel way. Lately I have been more reflective. I wish I had more time to spin these thoughts out and look at them, but I don't.American Immigration:The archetype of the ingenious, hard-working, self-sacrificing immigrant forming the backbone of America is incomplete and inadequate. This personality type has gone a long way to forming

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-43106640206341431642009-05-05T07:48:00.003-04:002009-05-05T07:50:05.282-04:00

I once swore to myself that if I ever wore Dockers, I would shoot myself. Now, I own two pairs of Dockers pants, one pair of Dockers shoes (brown, endorsed by some podiatrists), and a Dockers belt. I have to say, they make a good product.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-60621931234466350682009-04-27T08:58:00.002-04:002009-04-27T09:12:34.833-04:00

Every day on my way home as I approach where 50 meets the BW Parkway, I realize a little bit of me has died. Here I am spending my favorite time of day stuck nose-to-ass with my fellow commuters. We all hate each other. It's perfectly natural.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-28211750677200173092009-04-23T14:16:00.002-04:002009-04-23T14:32:39.872-04:00

If you're stomach gets tied up in knots at the injustice and perhaps corruption of the bank bailouts, just consider one thing. Banks are not like other companies. When they fail, they are unwound via the FDIC, not through bankruptcy. FDIC has all the powers of a bankruptcy judge, plus the powers of a U.S. Trustee. Plus, it has its own (federally backed) money on the line. Chrysler's impending

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-61480189132768251312009-04-17T13:45:00.003-04:002009-04-17T13:52:30.148-04:00

In a downturn, unemployment rates are an indicator of how bad the economy is performing. Side note: in a steady state unemployment rates reflect national labor and tax policies (among other things). So, when looking at the numbers tallied by BoL, remember that the major category of job loss nationwide is in construction and industries related to home repair and sales. Included under that

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-86214448675321176522009-04-16T09:27:00.002-04:002009-04-16T11:34:31.477-04:00

It has become axiomatic that the major players in finance are insolvent. Insolvent can mean different things, depending on how you define it. Let's be absolutely clear about one thing: none of the major banks are insolvent -- except from one perspective.Insolvency is a statement reflecting data on an institution's balance sheet, on which are listed assets, liabilities, and cash reserves.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-15724144442386003942009-04-02T14:24:00.004-04:002009-04-02T14:36:24.914-04:00

On the morning of March 4, the S&P 500 was just under 700. It is now trading at just under 840. Yeah, a 20% gain. What is the significance of March 4? Simply this: that is the day I called the bottom. Granted, the S&P 500 went down another 20 points in the week following my pronouncement, but it has only gone up since. Pretty good for a petty bureaucrat.Why am I awesome? Well, go read the

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-27326171623055951502009-03-23T09:25:00.002-04:002009-03-23T09:49:42.344-04:00

"The world," is often the answer I proffer when my wife asks me of the cause of my scowl. It's an all encompassing answer, and one which she offers reciprocally to my questions of concern.I know it's important to keep one's cool, to lift the mind above the details of uptick rules, carbon emission standards, toxic assets, and national burn-on-burn politics (Grassley with the cross-over, Frank

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-16405984811698354262009-03-20T09:32:00.003-04:002009-03-20T09:58:19.753-04:00

The Fed announced plans to buy up $300B in Treasury bonds. Now to be clear, the Fed is not buying up existing holdings of Treasuries, but is instead planning to be a buyer in imminent debt issuances by the U.S. Government. This means that the Fed still has one arrow left in its quiver. I am grappling with the timing of the Fed's move. The stock market sustained a rally until the news of the

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-9932736426756632492009-03-10T09:49:00.002-04:002009-03-10T10:00:55.808-04:00

If you are familiar at all with Smick's thinking, he is suspicious of populism/protectionism. He might be right here.Smick lives in the land of geniuses, and doesn't seem comfortable integrating the sources of populism and protectionism. Namely: voters/constituents. It's hard to fault Americans who want to see financial institutions held accountable for their misdeeds. I would qualify Smick's

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-10544443781634920462009-03-05T09:49:00.005-05:002009-03-05T10:17:41.234-05:00

Something is not right here:China targets 8% growth despite crisis: (courtesy of FT) Apparently China will not increase its deficit spending. Wen says that China will meet its 8% growth target based on the previous stimulus initiatives. Plus, the Chinese are sending peaceful overtures to Taiwan, while significantly increasing military spending.What am I not seeing? I know the world leaders have

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-53549916542015498252009-03-05T08:58:00.004-05:002009-03-05T09:09:34.827-05:00

I tend to agree with Cramer here. The Recovery Act is full of junk and lacks vision. Obama let others craft a plan portrayed as a strategy to stimulate the economy, but which is instead a debt creation initiative to be paid down by future generations. Of course, a worse (and more likely) scenario is that future generations will see today's balance inflated away. Obama is capable of something

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-58758149988533441172009-03-04T13:45:00.004-05:002009-03-04T15:29:37.715-05:00

I'll be laughed at, probably, but the bottom of the market is here. We will still see a lot of volatility, and an upward trend won't be discernible for another 9 months at least. But, now would be a good time to go in for a low cost, domestic index fund. I'd do it myself except that my liabilities (college debt) grow at a greater rate than any asset would appreciate. So, like the banks, I'm still

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-57352289836446069812009-02-26T14:52:00.002-05:002009-02-26T14:58:08.151-05:00

I have been puzzled all day on the timing of Obama's 10 year spending plan. Is Obama being moralistic in telling us up front about the higher taxes and reduced defense spending that is due to follow? Or did Jindal's failure to offer a significant rejoinder the other night give Obama the clout to dump all the softballs out onto the green, knowing full well that the GOP lacks a slugger?Or maybe

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-15823210885754535052009-02-23T09:30:00.003-05:002009-02-23T09:41:10.108-05:00

The anti-globalism rhetoric is heating up, as I predicted it would. The next fallout will be as governments fail to make a difference, populist anti-government anger will increase. Any and every country will have to watch out for its very own Timothy McVeigh.In Europe, labor markets will become less fluid as foreigners are blamed for stealing the remaining jobs. That will not end well.Here in

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-8737856852751818892009-02-10T14:45:00.001-05:002009-02-10T15:01:39.106-05:00

I thought we were entering into the nadir of the financial crisis, but reading Geithner's proposal makes me think we're still on the edge of an abyss. Great.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-90962552269813137362009-01-27T13:49:00.001-05:002009-01-27T13:50:45.180-05:00

Here's an article on inflation -- not deflation -- on Seeking Alpha.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-11231296809697677112009-01-16T12:47:00.002-05:002009-01-16T12:57:49.401-05:00

I earlier pointed out that Sonders of Schwab could have called the bottom, but didn't. The market has now lost all the recent gains and is negative for the year and appear to be going lower yet. How could that be, if the major funds have all delevered and sold to meet losses? Shouldn't there be nowhere else to put money besides equities? Well, that's because a) this is a credit crisis like

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-24768756245400147602009-01-16T12:38:00.002-05:002009-01-16T12:46:21.408-05:00

The real question is not who knows or understands the economy. The question is who understands the fall, and who understands the way through the trough, and then who knows the way up again. Any given economic or market genius may only know one part of the cycle. For example, check this out if you want to see someone who understands what brought us down, but has lately shown little

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-1723853521103901032009-01-08T11:33:00.004-05:002009-01-08T11:55:10.752-05:00

Schwab's Sonders has a great article/analysis available.I think if it weren't for the economic chaos, she'd be calling a market bottom based on some of the facts: hedge funds deleveraged, hedge funds' and mutual funds' redemptions having peaked, etc. No one in their right minds (yeah, I'm calling you out, Professor Siegel!) would think that there is a quick V-shaped turnaround coming,

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-80493869608942310652009-01-06T09:23:00.001-05:002009-01-06T09:26:30.915-05:00

Oh how I wish he had kept his ego health in line:http://www.slate.com/id/2207920/To add to his ideas for transformative stimulus projects, I would mention that WalMart is ready to roll out a nationwide network of nongas stations. Would it be so bad if WalMart saved our country? I could live with that.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-21494795894106883022009-01-05T08:47:00.004-05:002009-01-05T08:56:53.080-05:00

Slate and Foreign Policy are now under the same umbrella. Here's five economists noting all the reasons why we still have a long way to go before economic recovery ensues:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4590I couldn't be more thrilled to see such a perspicuous collection of notes, thoughts, and analyses. Look at the names, too: Roubini, Shiller, Smick, Roach, and Baker. Big

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-5069362121269601322009-01-05T08:19:00.005-05:002009-01-05T08:47:22.470-05:00

As I mentioned in an earlier post, globalism itself will come under fire. Here's the first stirrings, albeit from a source that is presumbably very pro-globalism:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4592Here's Roach's statement statement on globalism:A second megaforce at work is globalization—the cross-border linkages thatduring the past decade have increasingly taken the form of

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-48772160251335756992009-01-02T09:58:00.003-05:002009-01-02T10:28:08.001-05:00

Through most of the financial meltdown Steven Pearlstein showed perspicacity. He ended the year with a dud, though, suggesting that pay cuts may be desirable across the board -- not just for auto workers.I have several problems with the argument. First, let me up front: We Will See Wage Deflation. This will come in the form of wage stagnation (which amounts to wage deflation in the face of some

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-25837595847272743092008-12-31T15:50:00.004-05:002008-12-31T15:55:51.500-05:00

Two must read articles to sum up the year in finance:Three Views of Three Big Failures -- a summary plus Merkel's notes of three articles (two on WaPo and one on Vanity Fair) about AIG, the GSEs, and the meltdown in general.and:Another Big Bank Failure: More Likely Than Not to Occur -- Middleton explains why we still have a long way to go before things look reasonable again in the capital markets.

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-62750143346900355132008-12-30T13:10:00.003-05:002008-12-30T13:31:57.750-05:00

As reprinted on Yahoo! Finance, Saxo Bank made its annual predictions, with my comments to follow in blue.They are:Iranian Revolution -- Only if the US goes into Civil War as predicted by a Russian analyst.Crude Oil to $25 -- Our only hope for a quick recovery.S&P 500 to 500 -- A necessary correction to match historical values.Italy could drop the euro -- Will Italy be the first? I think there is

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-36034172966262617592008-12-30T13:02:00.002-05:002008-12-30T13:10:16.942-05:00

Courtesy of Howard Ruff:New Stock Market Terms(I Still have a Sense of Humor)CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.VALUE INVESTING -- The art of

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-51513979035206603122008-12-30T07:52:00.003-05:002008-12-30T08:00:59.040-05:00

It's just fear now (unless your name is Linens & Things or Sharper Image), but there is a foreboding sense of inevitability. Yes, stores will close. Yes, more stores will go bankrupt. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGQ__icNMvzI&refer=worldwideIn my house, we're betting on the survival of Target, even though their numbers are weak. We're betting on the failure of The Body Shop

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-85664989658575422722008-12-24T10:34:00.002-05:002008-12-24T10:52:26.025-05:00

It has been hard to get my head wrapped around the financial crisis. I console myself that this is true even for geniuses and Wall Street veterans. One thing is sure, though, the financial crisis has elevated new words into common parlance, and has changed the definitions of rather technical terms. Looking ahead to 2009, there are 10 words that popped up a lot in the past year, and the meanings

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-59672352503465935862008-12-23T07:25:00.002-05:002008-12-24T10:37:01.792-05:00

http://www.treas.gov/offices/economic-policy/macroecon/monthly_economic_data.pdfI am not sure which of those figures is the ugliest. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and corporate bonds is pretty bad -- nearly 6 points. It makes me wonder if we're still not seeing the worst of the equity market if the perception of risk of bond default has any grounding in reality.The jobs loss figures are

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-26447415048570476712008-12-19T14:21:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:37:25.625-05:00

See: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122969367595121563.htmlThe ineptitude of journalists reporting on law is exceeded only by their misadventures with science news.Let's get one thing straight right away about this auto bailout: it is not yet in effect, and won't be until the Unions agree to it. And they won't.See: http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/reports/chrysler%20final%20term%20&%

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-33244682414800666392008-12-19T08:44:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:37:55.298-05:00

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (is Evans his maiden name? I just don't get the hyphenated names) points out the grim news that Germany is toast. Great.http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/12/19/germany_is_already_collapsingIn short, no one's buying anything, so Germany is not selling anything and expects its economy to shrink at Depression levels. Awesomely bad.I wish I had

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-31523517214043472422008-12-18T09:20:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:38:20.828-05:00

Cohen doesn't address the complexity of churn, especially when the vectors are all out of whack, as in today's economy. Plus, the churn is global. Nonetheless, a good piece:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/opinion/18Cohen.html?_r=1&hp

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-1129275072472242102008-12-18T08:12:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:38:53.834-05:00

What more can the Fed do? Quantitative easing is next, I guess. As if the Fed's balance sheet didn't look bad enough. The only good news about the Fed rate cut is the weakening of the dollar. This should bolster commodities a bit, plus it will quiet the deflationary spiral panic monkeys.See:http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/explainer/2008/12/16/bernanke-s-blowoutWhat can't the Fed do? Fix the

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-10155428391742124472008-12-11T15:05:00.000-05:002008-12-11T15:20:38.504-05:00

Interesting and scary slideshow at CNNMoney.Highlights: The future is precarious. Don't expect the markets to improve any time soon. Dampen expectations.One expert is long on commodities. Not a bad plan, but I think the short run is going to be terrible for commodities. Then again, he specifically referenced ag commodities. That is probably going to be the one bright spot. Oh, and water, once

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-58089458634785144252008-12-10T15:19:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:39:15.342-05:00

CSIS is asking the President-Elect to make cybersecurity a national priority. Sounds good. But, how does a centralized structure with agencies and departments spewing out like kraken tentacles coordinate a coherent cybersecurity policy?The brains at CSIS are big, but I was hoping for something better than nuclear nonproliferation as a model. If national cybersecurity works out as well as

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-23598106009836317582008-12-09T08:58:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:39:40.058-05:00

Basically, no one knew what would happen when Lehman Bros. was allowed to fail. If enough people in economics and finance understood the interplay amongst derivatives, no one would have permitted Lehman to fail.Our modern shaman, the economist garbed in a button down shirt, consults his models the way his ancient predecessor examined the stars. The economist looks at indicators; the shaman spills

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-76730172173016973082008-12-05T07:38:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:40:02.665-05:00

According to Bloomberg News:Down: copper, corn, oilUp: soybeans (Chinese states were ordered to obtain reserves)Gold is unchanged.Once minerals hit bottom, hopefully that will inspire more production. The question will remain, though, as to who will be buying finished goods.OPEC will cut production. They have to be careful, though. If they cut production too much, the whole world will switch to

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-24451214666004953702008-12-04T10:44:00.000-05:002008-12-04T10:56:21.545-05:00

I console myself as I watch the grim headlines spit out by Google News and Yahoo! News each day by remembering that there is value out there. Workers somewhere are building stuff. Consumers out there are buying things. We just have a lot to churn through until the fundamentals appear rational again.The sources of the churn are many. Incomprehensible derivatives. Too much liquidity. Lax

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-68542923301369668942008-11-20T09:27:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:41:41.040-05:00

Consumer and producer inflation indexes are both down. Consumer confidence is down. Employment is up. In a vacuum, this is a recipe for a deflationary cycle. Don’t be fooled. Unless you're a dust mite, you don't live in a vacuum.We live in a world of interconnected national markets. Even though there is ample granite in the 50 states, we import granite countertops from India. Think of that, a

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-44647160945894548912008-11-18T10:22:00.000-05:002008-11-18T10:22:00.985-05:00

If true, there really is a sucker born every minute:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/17/hillary-clinton-secretary-of-stateAt least Barnum could be counted on to give us dancing bears. What will Obama cough up?

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-40879704334384682592008-11-18T10:10:00.001-05:002008-12-24T10:42:05.148-05:00

Forget Adam Smith, the prophet of America’s real religion. Forget that he knew the value of an organization rested in the labor, not the management. Forget all that. Forget dignity and common sense. Forget consequences.Instead, let us take a moment to regale our munificent lords. Verily, let us raise our hands to toast those who are known not for riding into town in shining armor, but rather for

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-19684796295208613632008-11-14T14:48:00.002-05:002008-12-24T10:42:53.003-05:00

The marauding financial crisis slaughtered the GOP and ransacked Reagan’s capitalism. Libertarians have run for the hills, pondering their fate. Will they regroup and form an organized guerrilla resistance, or will they skulk back into town and be assimilated with the rest of us into the next iteration of market theory?We have learned that our financial systems, in their interdependence, rest on

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-8972773569117549522008-11-05T11:26:00.000-05:002008-11-05T11:35:13.891-05:00

Numerous thoughts on the day after the historic election of Barack Obama:There used to be slaves in the White House. Obama has not shared his vision with us to the fullest extent. Political viability prohibits it. People are going to be shocked and dismayed about certain things. For example, watch affirmative action die away. Conservatives will ask why there should be affirmative action when

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-42106837700749417882008-11-04T12:33:00.000-05:002008-11-04T12:35:28.798-05:00

Did you vote?

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-73646809690121704132008-10-29T14:54:00.000-04:002008-10-29T15:13:18.404-04:00

Glance it was, and only a glance. My son got two shots for his 15 month checkup so he was unhappy and I was all too happy to give him attention last night. Nonetheless, the NBA season began anew. Here are my brief notes.Cavs: I like the combo of LeBron, Delonte, and Mo. Delonte can score, but I always thought of him as a playmaker. He can guard the two. The only problem with this lineup is

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-987034237013618660.post-68714038291843330902008-10-24T08:32:00.001-04:002008-10-24T08:47:28.822-04:00

Finally, the grand history of "socialism" (i.e., a well-ordered market economy befitting of a civilized society) is getting its due:http://www.slate.com/id/2202950/It is proper and sane to fear revolutionary communism. It's just crass to side with certain 'true conservatives" drunk on strong words like "liberty" and "freedom" and who see trees rather than a forest, cows instead of a herd, intent

The Millionth Monkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05457970945920260830noreply@blogger.com0